India ki GDP growth Q1FY25 me 6.5% tak girne ka estimation hai, jo pichle paanch quarters me sabse kam hai, economists kehte hain.
India ki economic growth pehle quarter of FY25 me 6.5% tak girne ka andaza lagaya gaya hai, jo pichle paanch quarters me sabse kam hai. Ye RBI ke recent projections se bhi neeche hai, kyunki elections ke wajah se government capital expenditure me contraction aur summer heatwaves ke impact ki wajah se kuch sectors me slowdown aaya hai, economists kehte hain.
GDP growth Q1FY25 me 6% se 7% ke range me estimate ki gayi hai, jabki Q1FY24 me GDP growth 8.2% thi aur Q4FY24 me 7.8% thi.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ne August ki monetary policy me April-June quarter ke liye India ki growth forecast ko 20 bps se ghata kar 7.1% kar diya, government capex ke muted hone, lower corporate profitability, aur lower core output ki wajah se.
Central bank ne full year FY25 ke GDP growth estimates ko 7.2% par hi rakha hai.
Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director aur Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings & Research ne kaha, “Fiscal ke pehle quarter me domestic economic activity ka general momentum thoda dheema pada hai. Kuch high frequency indicators dikhate hain ki general elections aur kuch sectors me excessive summer heat conditions ka adverse impact hua hai. Industrial output me lower growth aur profitability bhi lower hone se manufacturing sector me GVA growth weak ho sakti hai.”
Chowdhury ne Q1FY25 me GVA aur GDP growth ke moderation ka estimate 6.0% aur 6.4% diya hai. Unka maanna hai ki quarter ke dauran rural demand me partial recovery se private consumption me behtar growth dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Unka full year GDP growth forecast 6.8% hai.
Rating agency ICRA ne bhi India ki GDP growth ko Q1FY25 me 6.0% tak dheela hone ka projection diya hai, jo pichle quarter Q4FY24 me 7.8% thi. Ye contraction in government capital expenditure aur urban consumer confidence me girawat ke wajah se ho raha hai.
Gross value added (GVA) growth April-June 2024 quarter me 5.7% tak dheela hone ka estimate hai, jo March quarter me 6.3% thi. Isme industrial sector ka role hai, saath hi services me mild easing aur agricultural GVA growth me slight pick-up bhi shamil hai.
ICRA kehti hai ki FY2025 ke poore saal me economic activity me back-ended pick-up ki umeed hai jo GDP aur GVA growth ko 6.8% aur 6.5% tak le jaa sakta hai. Particularly, Government of India ke capital expenditure me 39% ka YoY expansion ki zarurat hai July-March FY2025 me Budget Estimate ko meet karne ke liye. Ye GDP growth ko H2 FY2025 me 7% ke upar le jaane ki sambhavana hai, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreach, ICRA kehti hain.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor at State Bank of India ne Q1FY25 ke liye GDP growth 7.0% – 7.1% aur GVA 6.7% – 6.8% ke beech hone ka forecast diya hai, lekin isme downward bias hai.
Ghosh ne kaha, “Global economic growth outlook abhi uncertain hai lekin softening inflation ne monetary policy easing ke liye jagah banayi hai. Q1 2024-25 me corporate performance ke indicators dikhate hain ki manufacturing companies ki sales growth dono nominal aur real terms me dheemi hui hai, lekin petroleum sector ko chhod kar better results dekhne ko milte hain.”
Unka maanna hai ki India Inc ke profit margins gir gaye hain, jo manufacturing growth ko neeche kheench sakta hai. Ghosh ko ummeed hai ki agricultural growth FY25 me 4.5% – 5% tak rebound karega, jo RBI ke forecast se lagbhag 30 bps zyada hai.
